Thirty- three days of war between Israel and Hezbollah changed the Middle East political landscape. It was obvious who the two warring sides were, but the forces behind them had turned the battle into a regional war, one that was directed from across Lebanon's borders. Israel was the proxy for the West.
Since the winter of 2005, most of the politicians in the Middle East and Israeli officials anticipated a "hot summer" for Lebanon. Five years prior to that, Israel was forced to admit defeat in a war of attrition and withdraw its forces from Lebanon after 22 years. This happened without any negotiations with the Lebanese government and chiefly because of the Hezbollah resistance movement.
Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and went deeper into the country four years later, deploying its forces in Beirut and for the first time occupying the capital of an Arab country.
The then-Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin deceptively told then US President Ronald Reagan that Tel Aviv would only advance 40 kilometers into southern Lebanon. The Israeli Army, however, moved all the way up to Beirut and reached a peace agreement with the newly elected President Bachir Gemayel, who had had longstanding ties with Tel Aviv. The 40-kilometer objective changed into the destruction of the Palestinian Liberation Organization in Lebanon and shortly later morphed into the installation of a pro-Israeli government.
The Lebanese Resistance Movement was immediately founded after the Israeli aggression and progressively drove Israel back out of Beirut to the south of Lebanon. In May 1983, Israel assumed that all its wishes had come true. Amine Gemayel, become president after his brother was assassinated. A treaty for peace with Israel was drafted. Lebanon was on course to become the second Arab country, after Egypt, to sign a peace agreement with Israel.
Things rapidly changed in Lebanon and the regional players like Syria and Iran, which was engaged in a war of its own with Iraq, were against Israel. Thus, Amine Gemayel refused to sign the peace the treaty with Israel. The resistance movement spread in Lebanon and Israel, which had been on the offensive, became defensive in a war of attrition.
Since invading Lebanon in 1978, Israel sought to form a local mercenary force to disintegrate the Lebanese government. In May 2000, the Lebanese nation finally witnessed the swift retreat of Israel and its allies from the south of Lebanon. Israel's image was damaged. Only four months later, the Second Palestinian Intifada against the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip started. For several years, Israel was forced to concentrate the majority of its forces in the occupied territories.
The US waged war on Iraq in 2003 and everyone expected former US President George W. Bush to change the Middle East map. A year later, in 2004, Israel assassinated the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat and his successors had no interest in continuing the Intifada. In 2005, former Lebanese Prime Minister and parliamentarian Rafiq Hariri was assassinated.
All this time, Israel has been waiting for revenge. The US invasion of Iraq and Rafiq Hariri's assassination and blaming it on Syria and even Iran - in the eyes of Tel Aviv leaders - was a good opportunity to inflict a retaliatory blow and ruin Lebanon's Hezbollah; especially, given Iran's growing influence in the region. Almost everyone had accepted the analysis that after the annihilation of Hezbollah in Lebanon and armed Palestinian movements in Gaza, and the overthrow of the Syrian government or forcing it to change its conduct, the best opportunity would be provided to strike a isolated Iran. Hence all were expecting a scorching summer for not only Lebanon but also the entire Middle East.
The hot summer began, but not with the Israeli initiative. Lebanon's Hezbollah used its right to attack the enemy which had parts of south Lebanon in its occupation, and captured two Israeli soldiers. Israeli leaders immediately reacted and bombarded the Beirut airport and dispatched their army to southern Lebanon. Later they were convinced that Hezbollah took the measure just when the 'zero hour' for the Israeli military operation had yet to come, and thus they faced war months earlier that the due time.
When the war started, then US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice traveled to Beirut and announced the "birth of a new Middle East." A new Middle East was a major project which required years of political, economic and military planning. It then came to light that Western and Israeli leaders had the plan to attack Lebanon on the table since long before and the strike was not a mere response to Hezbollah's guerrilla move.
Since Israel withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah had been preparing for the Israeli army's next war. The Israeli army was beaten on any route it tried. For the first time war spread to towns inside Israel. Two weeks into the start of the war, Israel was left with no other option but to agree to a ceasefire. Only George Bush's insistence from the White House and London's bridge of airborne military assistance allowed the war to continue.
By the time the war ended, the Israeli army had suffered a severe blow. In Israel, the army means everything. When the army is discredited, nothing can be counted on. Two years later, the Israeli army embarked on another military operation in a bid to recover its deterrence power, but did not dare to attack Lebanon. Thus the strike was carried out on Gaza and lasted 22 days, but did not earn Israel anything significant. Hamas remained in power, like Hezbollah remained in Lebanon.
Israel still lacks the courage to attack Lebanon. Many believe a new war is certain, but Israeli officials constantly say that Hezbollah has grown many times more powerful than the 2006 war.
After the changes in Arab countries and the ouster of Israeli-friendly regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, fears have emerged in Israel that it has to consider a new a Middle East where the nations have achieved the power to choose and Arab dictatorships can no longer decide in their place about establishing ties with Israel.
HMV/MRS/HGH
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