Kenya mall attack: war on the home front - The Guardian

For some time now, al-Shabaab has been described as being on the back foot in Somalia. That may have been more a perception than a realistic analysis of its reach. Despite its losses, and factional infighting, the militant Islamist group still holds vast swathes of territory. So although Mogadishu has been enjoying something of a renaissance, it is still in a war zone. The UN Development Programme and the Turkish mission in Somalia have both been targeted this year. Now that a complex, large-scale, Mumbai-style terrorist attack has been staged in the heart of the Kenyan capital, it may be time to revise some of the more premature assessments that the al-Qaida-linked group was on the wane.

Al-Shabaab was quick to claim responsibility for the assault on the Westgate shopping mall, and the assumption is that this was the long-feared reprisal for Kenya's unilateral decision two years ago to intervene in Somalia, wipe out the militant group and create a buffer zone. But another more worrying possibility is that this attack could also have involved Kenyans radicalised by the Salafi jihadi creed.

Kenyan forces went into Somalia, not so much to stabilise the war-torn country, but to get al-Shabaab. The fear was that the Somalia's instability would spill over its borders and go down the coast threatening Mombasa, East Africa's most important port and Kenya's vital tourist industry. Somali pirates had already begun to prey on coastal towns in Kenya and two foreign aid workers were snatched from a refugee camp near the border. The Kenyan intervention was accompanied by a crackdown on radical Islamist preachers and clerics in the coastal areas. The assassination of Sheikh Aboud Rogo, who was facing terror-related charges, was widely condemned as an extrajudicial killing and sparked clashes between police and Muslim youths. While a heavily armed group could have come across the border to mount an attack of this sophistication, the other possibility is that an operation like this could have been supported by cells within Kenya. There may be those who will be tempted to stage revenge attacks on Kenya's large Somali population. An entire suburb of Eastleigh is known as the Somali district. The Kenyan government has a duty to provide security for Somalis, especially when emotions are running high. However, the real concern raised by this attack is that Islamic radicalisation in Kenya may go deeper than the Mumbai- style model may suggest.

Al-Shabab's threat to strike Kenya is no longer bravado. It is real. It has become the deadliest militant movement operating in the Horn of Africa. To stop it growing further, Kenya needs to draw on all its resources and learn the lessons of others. Counter-terrorism must not generate and feed its own insurgency.