David McKittrick: Shunned gunmen wage war they cannot win - Irish Independent

THE latest killing by dissident republicans demonstrates in the most deadly manner that they have the capacity to take life and to wreck the life of a family. But the torrent of condemnation of the attack from all quarters also demonstrates that they lack the capacity to wreck the Peace Process and drag Northern Ireland back to the dark old days.

The deluge of criticism illustrated that the determination is practically universal, North and South, that they should not be permitted to re-ignite the Troubles.

There is absolutely no sign that they have any more than a few hundred activists, plus perhaps a couple of thousand individuals who have some vestige of sympathy for them, sometimes for family reasons.

This amounts to political isolation, with no sign that they are attracting any increase in public support or toleration. And in addition to having a disconnect with society, they also have a disconnect with logic.

This is because they don't really have a sense that they are involved in a conflict which they can win. The aim is rather to keep alight an ancient flame so that, some distant day, their cause might somehow triumph.

First Minister Peter Robinson expressed a commonly held view when he described them yesterday as "flat-earth fanatics".

Yet enough of them have been infected with this logic-free approach to maintain a collection of small dissident groups which periodically cause deaths -- half-a-dozen in the last few years.

The security forces had assumed that once the IRA had left the scene, the dissidents would be mopped up within a few years. But they have proved exasperatingly persistent, recruiting some youthful members and some republican veterans with bomb-making skills they picked up in the old Provisional IRA.

The range of tactics at the disposal of dissident groups now includes large car bombs, mortars and under-car boobytraps.

It was in March 2009 that they killed two soldiers and a police officer in two separate incidents which led the intelligence services to commit more time, effort and resources into combating them.

Since then, there have been a number of important arrests north and south of the Border which have taken formidable figures out of circulation.

At the same time, however, some highly significant "operators" emerged from jail following the collapse of cases against them.

This has caused concern for the security forces, which are presumed to be keeping them under heavy surveillance.

In all, there are now 41 prisoners in Maghaberry Prison classed as dissidents, either serving sentences or awaiting trial.

OVERALL, the security push of 2009 seemed to have paid off, with British Home Secretary Theresa May announcing last month that MI5 had downgraded the threat to Britain from dissidents from substantial to moderate. This indicated, she said, that a terrorist attack was possible but not likely.

She warned, however, that in Northern Ireland the threat remained severe, with an attack highly likely.

One problem for the authorities is that more than a dozen dissident groupings, some of them localised and quite small, have been independently active. This has made surveillance more difficult.

In July, a number of these groups declared with something of a fanfare that they were combining in an umbrella organisation. It is not yet clear how much significance is to be attached to this, but in its wake it was expected they would attempt to follow it up with a major attack.

The main target for the dissidents has been the police, two of whom have died. The fact that no prison officers have come under attack for many years has meant that security around them has relaxed, giving the dissidents the opportunity to add to their death toll.

Irish Independent